Drought occurs in each of the above regions at different times seasons during an event and in varying degrees of magnitude. Ropelewski and Halpert also looked at the link between ENSO events and regional precipitation patterns around the globe Northeastern South America from Brazil up to Venezuela shows one of the strongest relationships. In 17 ENSO events, this region had 16 dry episodes.
It is not uncommon to find the rain forests burning during these dry periods. Other areas from their study also showed a strong tendency to be dry during ENSO events. In the Pacific basin, Indonesia, Fiji, Micronesia, and Hawaii are usually prone to drought during an event. Virtually all of Australia is subjected to abnormally dry conditions during ENSO events, but the eastern half has been especially prone to extreme drought.
This is usually followed by bush fires and a decimation of crops. India has also been subjected to drought through a suppression of the summer monsoon season that seems to coincide with ENSO events in many cases. Eastern and southern Africa also showed a strong correlation between ENSO events and a lack of rainfall that brings on drought in the Horn region and areas south of there.
Another region they found to be abnormally dry during warm events was Central America and the Caribbean Islands. Thus, ENSO events seem to have a stronger influence on regions in the lower latitudes, especially in the equatorial Pacific and bordering tropical areas. The intensity of the anomalies in these regions is also more inconsistent than those of the lower latitudes. If we can understand some of the teleconnections discussed above, it can lead us to some general predictive capabilities via numeric computer models that can help us determine and conclude when conditions are favorable for the onset of an event.
Numeric models try to emulate processes and dynamic relationships that occur in nature using sets of numbers and equations. But once an event is underway, forecasting its duration and intensity are difficult at best. This can serve as a broad-brush approach for given regions, with the understanding that expanses within any given area will not behave in the exact same manner from event to event. These buoys measure temperature, currents, and winds in this region on a daily basis.
The data is available to scientists around the world in real time, enabling them to use the data for both research and forecasting. This network is very valuable in that the first stages of an ENSO event occur in this region. The predictive models are becoming more sophisticated and more effective in many respects thanks in part to the expanded data sets that are available for the equatorial Pacific region. The dynamic coupled nature of the new models has allowed for prediction of ENSO events a year or more in advance.
ENSO forecasts help countries anticipate and mitigate droughts and floods, and are very useful in agricultural planning. Famine, like drought, is a slow-onset disaster, so forewarning may enable countries to greatly reduce, if not eliminate, its worst impacts. ENSO advisories are used to a lesser extent in planning in North America and other extratropical countries, because the links between ENSO and weather patterns are less clear in these areas.
As prediction models improve, the role of ENSO advisories in planning in mid-latitude countries will increase. India bets its energy future on solar—in ways both small and big. Environment Planet Possible India bets its energy future on solar—in ways both small and big Grassroots efforts are bringing solar panels to rural villages without electricity, while massive solar arrays are being built across the country.
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Generally, when pressure is high over the Pacific Ocean, it tends to be low in the eastern Indian Ocean, and vice versa. The research also indicates traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index values became more negative stronger , consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia.
During an ENSO event, drought can occur virtually anywhere in the world. But, according to drought research, the strongest connections are between ENSO and intense drought in Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil , parts of eastern and southern Africa, the western Pacific basin islands including Hawaii , Central America, and various parts of the U.
Here and there Indonesia In Indonesia, drought affecting its southern regions is being attributed to El Nino, according to local reports. Drinking water wells in Wonigiri, located in central Java, are dry after no rain for nearly six months. Farmers have been hit hard and due to El Nino and the western monsoon rains, which normally occur December to March, are expected to start two months later than usual.
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